NUVI Alumni 2026

Week 1

Team Whitehead · $88 FAAB remaining · roster full at 14/14

Waiver Report (Tuesday)

Generated Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · before any Week 1 game has been played · league data pulled live from the ESPN API

The short version

  1. Almost nothing here costs FAAB. 346 of the 350 available players are plain free agents — $0, instant, no claim. Only four sit on waivers. Do not bid on anyone you can simply add.
  2. The problem isn't a player, it's roster structure. One QB and one TE, and the TE is eight months removed from a torn Achilles and plays tomorrow night.
  3. One move actually matters: drop Tank Dell, add Brenton Strange. $0. Ideally before Thursday 5:35pm PT.

Where the roster actually stands

Starting requirements are QB 1 · RB 2 · WR 2 · TE 1 · FLEX 2, with six bench spots and — importantly — no IR slot (the league is configured with zero IR spots). An injured player occupies a live bench seat like anyone else.

PosCountWho
QB1Josh Allen
RB4Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, J.K. Dobbins, Kaleb Johnson
WR8Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams, Rome Odunze (Q), Jayden Reed, KC Concepcion, Tank Dell (IR)
TE1George Kittle (Q)

Eight receivers for two WR slots and two flexes. One tight end for a mandatory tight end slot. That imbalance is the whole report.

The bye weeks make it worse

WeekOutConsequence
6Jameson WilliamsFine — covered
7Josh Allen, Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurinNo quarterback at all
8George Kittle, Tank DellNo tight end at all
10Saquon Barkley, J.K. Dobbins, Rome OdunzeThin at RB, survivable
11Jayden Reed, KC Concepcion, Kaleb JohnsonFine — WR surplus absorbs it
13Jonathan Taylor, Zay FlowersFine

Weeks 7 and 8 are back-to-back zeroes in mandatory slots — not downgrades, zeroes. Those are the two dates this season is actually pointing at, and both are cheap to solve now.

The FAAB market in this league

Every FAAB dollar ever spent in NUVI Alumni, in full:

DateTeamPlayerBidResult
Sep 1Team WhiteheadKaleb Johnson (RB)$11Won — sole bidder
Sep 1Team WhiteheadDJ Giddens (RB)$1Won
Sep 1Breaking BurrowJalen McMillan (WR)$1Won

That is the entire history. Eight of ten teams have spent $0 and have never placed a waiver claim. Over the same stretch there have been eight free-agent adds at $0 — Bijan Mustard alone has made four, and Team Stowell two in the last 48 hours.

TeamFAAB leftWaiver claims ever
Team Whitehead$882
Breaking Burrow$991
Carvalho · Jensen · Cee Deez Nuts · His Airdness · Stowell · Lackey · Carnahan · Bijan Mustard$1000

Last week's lesson repeated itself in the data: the $11 on Kaleb Johnson was unopposed. National rostered-percentage momentum keeps predicting competition that this league never produces.

The reframe that matters this week: when 346 of 350 available players are $0 free agents, competition isn't an auction you win with money. It's a race you win by clicking first. Budget is not the scarce resource here — roster spots and timing are.

Recommended moves, in order

1  High conviction  $0 — free agent

ADD Brenton Strange (TE, JAX)  ·  DROP Tank Dell (WR, HOU)  ·  Do it before Thursday 5:35pm PT

George Kittle is questionable for a Thursday opener in Melbourne, eight months removed from an Achilles tear suffered in January's Wild Card game. The signals are genuinely positive — he practiced in Australia, the coaching staff says he'll play in some capacity, and San Francisco cutting backup tight end Brayden Willis reads as confidence. But "plays in some capacity" on a surgically repaired Achilles is not a tight end you leave uncovered, and Justin currently has no other tight end. If Kittle is scratched or snap-limited, the TE slot is a zero, and the games kick off before waivers could bail him out.

Strange is the right target rather than the obvious one. T.J. Hockenson is the name at the top of the list by national ownership (61%), and he's a trap: TE22 by ADP, roughly 7.7 projected points per game, and third in line for targets behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Strange has the more secure role — five targets per game after returning from injury in 2025, four top-ten weekly finishes in those seven games, and seventh among tight ends in EPA per target, attached to an ascending quarterback. Season projections have the two within half a point per week of each other, so the tiebreaker is the upside tail, and that's Strange's.

The drop is the easy half. Tank Dell is on IR-designated-to-return and cannot play until Week 5 at the earliest, coming back from a dislocated knee with torn ACL, MCL and LCL plus meniscus damage that cost him all of 2025; Houston's GM said this month that he is "not quite there." With no IR slot in this league he burns a live bench seat for at least a month, on a roster that already has seven other receivers and a hole at tight end. He was added yesterday, which makes this awkward rather than wrong — the stash is defensible in the abstract, it just isn't affordable at 14/14 with Weeks 7 and 8 looking the way they do.

2  High conviction  Do nothing yet

QB2 for the Week 7 bye — wait until Week 6.

Sitting unrostered in this league right now: Bo Nix (89.6% rostered nationally), Jared Goff (71.2%), Baker Mayfield (60.1%), Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, Malik Willis. All free agents at $0. In a ten-team league with one quarterback slot, the position is effectively inexhaustible, and burning a bench seat in Week 1 to solve a Week 7 problem is the expensive way to do it.

Revisit in Week 5 or 6 and take whoever is playing best. The name to watch is Malik Willis — he projects for 671 rushing yards, second among all quarterbacks behind only Jayden Daniels, and rushing volume is exactly the trait you want in a one-week Josh Allen replacement because it holds up regardless of matchup. If he keeps that role through September he's the pickup; if not, Nix or Goff will almost certainly still be there.

3  Medium-low conviction  $0 — free agent

OPTIONAL — ADD Kaelon Black (RB, SF)  ·  DROP KC Concepcion (WR, CLE)

This one is genuinely close, and holding is a fine answer. Black is San Francisco's RB2 on the Week 1 depth chart, a third-round rookie who has the backup job locked with Jordan James dealing with a rib fracture. He is the handcuff to a 30-year-old Christian McCaffrey coming off an NFL-high 413 touches, who has played seven games or fewer in three of his nine seasons. If McCaffrey misses time, Black is an immediate RB1 in a Shanahan offense — the highest-equity lottery ticket on the board.

The cost is real, though. Concepcion projects around 10 points per week — higher than any available tight end — and his 27.2% career target share led the rookie class. What holds him back is everything around him: Cleveland finished bottom-three in every major passing category in 2025, Deshaun Watson is the early favorite to start while working back from a twice-torn Achilles, and targets are split with Jerry Jeudy, Denzel Boston and Harold Fannin Jr. He is a stash, not a starter, and he is the eighth receiver on a roster that starts at most four.

The competitive note: McCaffrey belongs to Team Stowell, who has made two free-agent adds in the last 48 hours and is the most active manager in the league right now. If anyone takes Black, it's them — and they'd take him for $0 too. There's no bid to win, just a clock.

4  Low conviction — lean skip  Requires a bid

Josh Downs (WR, IND) — the only player on waivers worth anything. Bid $2 if you want him, or let him clear.

Downs is the best player available by a wide margin: a 24% target share in 2025 that led all Colts pass catchers, with Michael Pittman Jr. traded away, and 14.2 fantasy points per game in contests where he sees eight or more targets. He's on waivers rather than free agency because he was dropped in the last day or so, and he'll clear to $0 free agency within about 24 hours if nobody claims him.

The case against is roster fit, not talent. Justin already has eight receivers and one tight end. Downs would slot in around WR6 and never crack the lineup, while the bench seat he'd consume is the same one the tight end problem needs. Best-player-available is the wrong frame when the roster is full and the hole is somewhere else. If the pull is too strong, $2 almost certainly wins given three bids in league history — but the recommendation is to let him go and keep the spot.

The other three on waivers — Jordyn Tyson (IR), Jake Tonges (1.3% rostered), DJ Giddens (0.4%, just dropped from this roster) — are all skips.

Wait and get him free

This is the default in this league, and this week it applies to essentially the entire board. Everyone listed below is a $0 free agent right now — not on waivers, no claim required, no reason to spend a dollar:

PlayerPosRosteredNote
Bo NixQB89.6%Nearly universally rostered nationally, free here
Jakobi MeyersWR81.6%Questionable; drafted and dropped from this roster
Khalil ShakirWR71.2%
Jared GoffQB71.2%Backup plan for the Week 7 bye
T.J. HockensonTE61.0%The name-brand trap — see move 1
Baker MayfieldQB60.1%
Hunter HenryTE56.5%Highest-projected available TE; the floor alternative to Strange
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB33.2%
Jonah ColemanRB31.9%Steepest riser in the pool (+2.3)
Dalton SchultzTE19.5%Best pure Week 1 TE streamer — Higgins' ACL lifts him
Malik WillisQB22.0%The Week 7 target
Kayshon BoutteWR16.1%Steps into Houston's WR2 role
Kaelon BlackRB15.9%See move 3
Chris BrooksRB9.5%Third man in the Green Bay committee

If the choice is between spending FAAB and waiting a day, wait. This league has given no evidence it will take a player off the board.

Two notes that aren't waiver moves

The lineup has Brian Thomas Jr. on the bench. The current starters list Zay Flowers and Terry McLaurin at receiver with Jameson Williams and Rome Odunze in the flexes — which leaves the best receiver on the roster inactive, while Odunze missed Monday's practice with a right leg injury and is a real scratch risk. Flowers, for what it's worth, is fully cleared. This is almost certainly a stale auto-lineup rather than a decision; Thursday's run will go through it properly, but it's worth fixing now.

Kaleb Johnson is a hold, not a mistake. Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list following two misdemeanor charges — barred from practicing or playing, with the Packers only expressing hope he plays "sometime this season." Green Bay traded a sixth-rounder for Johnson because of it. The catch is that it's a three-way committee with MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks, so the $11 bought a share, not a job. Week 1 touch distribution settles it; if Johnson clears ten touches he's worth every dollar, and if Lloyd runs away with it the drop decision gets easy next week. The season projection on file for him (0.3 points per week) is stale — it predates the trade and still has him buried in Pittsburgh.

How confident to be in all this

Less than usual, and for a specific reason: no Week 1 game has been played yet. Everything above is built on camp reports, depth charts, injury designations and preseason usage — there are no snap counts, no target shares, and no injury-vacated roles to react to. That makes this the least informative waiver report of the season by a wide margin, which is itself an argument for the cheap, structural moves recommended here rather than aggressive spending.

The specific things that could age badly: Kittle could look completely healthy Thursday and make the Strange add redundant (it still isn't wasted — the Week 8 bye is coming either way). Strange's role depends on a target share he has held for seven career games, not seventeen. Kaelon Black is worth nothing at all unless McCaffrey gets hurt. And the read that this league won't bid is based on three data points; one aggressive new habit from any manager invalidates it, so it's worth re-checking the transaction log every week rather than assuming.

Confidence is highest on the thing that costs nothing: Justin has one tight end and one quarterback, byes in Weeks 7 and 8, and a bench seat occupied by someone who cannot play until Week 5. That's true regardless of what happens Thursday.

Sources

Final Check (Sunday)

Ran late — Monday, September 14, 2026, 7:52am MT. The scheduled job was supposed to fire before the 11:00am MT Sunday kickoffs and did not. Every Sunday game was already final when it ran, so nothing below was actionable. Posted as a record, not as advice.

Did the miss cost anything?

No. Checked after the fact: all eight starters were active and played. There was one live risk going into Sunday — Zay Flowers carried a QUESTIONABLE tag into the 11:00am BAL @ IND game — and he not only played, he led the team's receivers with 26.0. An on-time check would have found a clean lineup and told Justin to do nothing.

What the starters actually did

SlotPlayerActualProjected
QBJosh Allen35.719.3
RBJonathan Taylor25.117.7
RBSaquon Barkley9.017.7
WRZay Flowers26.014.2
WRTerry McLaurin3.412.2
TEGeorge Kittle3.28.4
FLEXJameson Williams8.512.1
FLEXRome Odunze7.212.4
Total118.06114.0

Allen, Taylor and Flowers carried the week; McLaurin, Kittle and both FLEX spots all missed their projections. The bench would not have rescued any of it — the best bench score among players who have already played was KC Concepcion at 7.8, which beats only Odunze and Kittle by a couple of points.

Where the matchup stands

Team Whitehead 118.06 — Team Jensen 98.06. A 20-point lead with Justin's roster fully finished. Jensen has exactly one player left: Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) in tonight's DEN @ KC game, 6:15pm MT. Walker is reported healthy and is expected to make his first start for Kansas City.

So the week comes down to one number: Walker needs 20.01 points to win it for Jensen. That is a demanding but entirely reachable line for a starting back in a primetime game — roughly 100+ scrimmage yards plus two touchdowns. Nothing Justin can do either way; his lineup is locked and complete.

One loose end from Tuesday

The Tuesday report's highest-conviction recommendation — drop Tank Dell, add Brenton Strange as tight end insurance — was not executed. Dell is still on the roster occupying a bench spot while on injured reserve, and Kittle started and returned 3.2. It cost about nothing this week, but the underlying problem is unchanged: one tight end, and he is eight months off an Achilles tear. Worth revisiting in Tuesday's waiver pass.