NUVI Alumni 2026
Team Whitehead · 3 points, 4th in the standings · 1–1 with two top-five weeks · $85 FAAB remaining · roster full at 14/14 + 1 IR · Week 3 vs. Breaking Burrow (2–0)
Through Week 2 · one point for winning your matchup, one point for finishing in the weekly top five · ties broken by total points for
| # | Team | Pts | Record | Top 5 | Points For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Jensen | 4 | 2–0 | 2 | 242.96 |
| 2 | Team Carvalho | 3 | 2–0 | 1 | 261.70 |
| 3 | Breaking Burrow | 3 | 2–0 | 1 | 233.84 |
| 4 | Team Whitehead | 3 | 1–1 | 2 | 232.28 |
| 5 | His Airdness | 2 | 1–1 | 1 | 248.78 |
| 6 | Team Lackey | 2 | 1–1 | 1 | 230.18 |
| 7 | Team Carnahan | 1 | 0–2 | 1 | 224.34 |
| 8 | Cee Deez Nuts | 1 | 0–2 | 1 | 223.22 |
| 9 | Team Stowell | 1 | 1–1 | 0 | 210.46 |
| 10 | Bijan Mustard | 0 | 0–2 | 0 | 167.20 |
| Team | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Jensen | W T5 132.16 | W T5 110.80 | 4 |
| Team Carvalho | W T5 153.00 | W 108.70 | 3 |
| Breaking Burrow | W 108.96 | W T5 124.88 | 3 |
| Team Whitehead | T5 118.06 | W T5 114.22 | 3 |
| His Airdness | W T5 150.12 | — 98.66 | 2 |
| Team Lackey | — 86.98 | W T5 143.20 | 2 |
| Team Carnahan | T5 129.52 | — 94.82 | 1 |
| Cee Deez Nuts | — 114.20 | T5 109.02 | 1 |
| Team Stowell | W 110.10 | — 100.36 | 1 |
| Bijan Mustard | — 81.32 | — 85.88 | 0 |
W matchup win · T5 top-five scoring week · score shown beneath
The two-point system rewards a very different team than a straight win-loss record does, and Team Whitehead is currently on the right side of that. Justin is 1–1 but tied for second in points, because he has the only pair of top-five scoring weeks in the league outside of Team Jensen. A 1–1 record is 9th-best; 3 points is 4th.
Team Stowell is the mirror image and the cautionary tale: also 1–1, but zero top-five weeks, so they sit on a single point, tied with two 0–2 teams. Consistent mid-range scoring is worth almost nothing here. His Airdness has the second-most points for in the league (248.78) and only 2 points, because 150.12 and 98.66 averages out fine and cashes in only once.
The cut line is the number to watch, and it moved a lot. Week 1 required 118.06 to make the top five. Week 2 required 109.02 — and sixth place missed by 0.32 points. That margin is the practical argument for treating every FLEX decision as live: in this format, three points of lineup optimization is a real chance at a full standings point, which a head-to-head blowout win never gives you.
Scoring format note: through Week 9, every team plays every other team once and both points are live (matchup win + top five, maximum two per week). The schedule confirms the round robin completes exactly at Week 9. From Week 10 the matchups stop counting and the weekly top five earns two points each.
Generated Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 2:15pm MT · all Week 2 games final · league data pulled live from the ESPN API · claims process Wednesday, September 23, about 1:00am MT
Calibration note, stated plainly: last week's $2 recommendation on Kaelon Black lost. Team Carvalho won him at $5. The league's price floor is rising — three bids on September 1 ($11, $1, $1) became five bids on September 16 ($9, $5, $3, $1, $1). The read that "this league bids quiet" is still correct in aggregate, but "quiet" now means $3–$5 on a contested player, not $1.
Justin beat Bijan Mustard 114.22–85.88 to get to 1–1. The roster is full at 14 active plus Jordyn Tyson on IR, so every add below requires a drop. The shape of the team is lopsided: eight wide receivers, three running backs, two tight ends, one quarterback.
| Player | Pos | Bye | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Status / Week 2 usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | 7 | 35.7 | 40.8 | Healthy. The only quarterback on the roster. |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 13 | 25.1 | 29.2 | Healthy, elite. Carrying the team. |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 10 | 9.0 | 3.0 | Questionable Stinger on the first play at Tennessee; 12 snaps (16%). MRI described as precautionary. Expected to play Monday night vs. Chicago. |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 10 | 3.6 | 3.6 | Questionable Hamstring, exited vs. Jacksonville. 21 snaps. Reported as not serious; optimism for Sunday night vs. the Rams. |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 7 | 3.4 | 7.0 | Healthy. Two quiet weeks, no role change. |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 10 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 86% snaps, 84% routes, only 4 targets. Role is secure; the targets aren't there yet. |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 6 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 91% snaps, 90.6% routes — and 4 targets on 40 routes. Two straight weeks of elite playing time and no volume. Watch this. |
| George Kittle | TE | 8 | 3.2 | 18.0 | Healthy, and the snap count is opening up. |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 13 | 8.9 | 10.9 | Free-agent add on Sep 18. Covers Kittle's Week 8 bye exactly. Keep. |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 13 | 26.0 | 0.0 | Out Hamstring, missed Week 2. Not expected to miss much more. Hold. |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | Healthy, steady, unspectacular. |
| KC Concepcion | WR | 11 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 72% routes, 6 targets. Cleveland's clear second option behind Denzel Boston. Keep. |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11 | 5.0 | 1.4 | Drop candidate Carted off vs. the Jets with what was re-diagnosed as a back injury. Timeline TBD; unlikely to be cleared for Thursday. |
| Caleb Douglas | WR | 6 | 14.4 | 3.9 | Drop candidate Miami's WR3 in a bad offense. Week 1 was the outlier, not Week 2. |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | 8 | — | — | IR Eligible to return Week 5 at the earliest; reporting points to mid-October. Costs nothing. Keep stashed. |
This is the one genuinely structural issue on the roster, and it does not fix itself.
| Week | Players on bye | Damage |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Josh Allen (BUF), Terry McLaurin (WSH), Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | No quarterback at all. Justin cannot field a legal starting lineup at QB without adding one before then. |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley (PHI), J.K. Dobbins (DEN), Rome Odunze (CHI) | Two of three running backs gone the same week. Survivable in PPR with two FLEX spots filled by receivers, but thin. |
| 13 | Jonathan Taylor (IND), Zay Flowers (BAL), Mark Andrews (BAL) | The best player on the roster, plus a starting receiver and the backup tight end. |
| 6 | Jameson Williams (DET), Caleb Douglas (MIA) | Manageable. |
| 8 | George Kittle (SF) | Covered — Mark Andrews plays Week 8. |
| 11 | Jayden Reed (GB), KC Concepcion (CLE) | Manageable. |
Justin is the only manager in the league carrying exactly one healthy quarterback into a bye he has not covered. Team Lackey (Jordan Love) and Team Carnahan (Drake Maye) also carry one, but both of their quarterbacks bye in Week 11 — four weeks after Justin's problem lands.
Eight winning bids in league history, across two waiver runs:
| Date | Team | Player | Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | Team Whitehead | Kaleb Johnson (RB) | $11 |
| Sep 1 | Team Whitehead | DJ Giddens (RB) | $1 |
| Sep 1 | Breaking Burrow | Jalen McMillan (WR) | $1 |
| Sep 16 | Team Jensen | Devaughn Vele (WR) | $9 |
| Sep 16 | Team Carvalho | Kaelon Black (RB) | $5 |
| Sep 16 | Team Whitehead | Jordyn Tyson (WR) | $3 |
| Sep 16 | Bijan Mustard | Bryce Young (QB) | $1 |
| Sep 16 | Bijan Mustard | Baker Mayfield (QB) | $1 |
Total league spend: $32 of a possible $1,000. FAAB remaining: Cee Deez Nuts, His Airdness, Team Stowell, Team Lackey and Team Carnahan all at $100 — five teams have never spent a dollar or won a claim. Breaking Burrow $99, Bijan Mustard $98, Team Jensen $91, Team Carvalho $95, Team Whitehead $85. Justin has spent more than the rest of the league combined minus one.
The tie-break rule changed and it matters. Justin now sits 9th of 10 in waiver priority, not 10th. On equal bids he beats Bijan Mustard — the one manager who bids $1 reflexively — and loses to everyone else. So $1 is never the right number: it either ties Bijan (Justin wins, fine) or loses to any other team's $1. $2 buys a genuine edge over the only habitual $1 bidder in the league.
Bidding competition in this league is not driven by national rostered percentage. It is driven by whether a specific manager has a hole and has shown they will pay to fill it. Here is the whole league:
| Team | FAAB | Bid history | Acute need | Threat this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Carvalho | $95 | 1 claim, $5 | Zero healthy QBs — Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart both doubtful | High — on a QB |
| Team Jensen | $91 | 1 claim, $9 | RJ Harvey (DEN) out — wants the Denver backfield | High — on Jonah Coleman |
| Bijan Mustard | $98 | 2 claims, $1 each | Churns constantly (9 acquisitions), but only ever bids $1 | Low — and loses ties to Justin |
| Breaking Burrow | $99 | 1 claim, $1 | Puka Nacua out; RB room is deep | Low |
| Team Stowell | $100 | Never | A.J. Brown IR, Brock Bowers out — real TE/WR need | Low — adds free agents only |
| His Airdness | $100 | Never | Already grabbed Denzel Boston and James Conner for $0 | Low — free agency only |
| Team Lackey | $100 | Never | RB-rich, one QB (bye 11) | Low |
| Team Carnahan | $100 | Never — zero acquisitions all season | Nico Collins and Michael Pittman out, but six RBs | None |
| Cee Deez Nuts | $100 | Never — zero acquisitions all season | Caleb Williams doubtful, but Stafford is healthy | None |
Two teams will plausibly spend real money on Wednesday, and their targets are known: Carvalho needs a quarterback and Jensen wants Jonah Coleman. Everything outside those two lanes is cheap.
Conviction: medium-high. 15.2% rostered · Week 2: 15 touches, 38 yards, 1 TD
Barkley left on the first play at Tennessee with a stinger and finished with 12 snaps. He is expected to play Monday night, and the MRI was called precautionary — this is insurance, not a reaction. But Barkley is Justin's RB2 on a three-back roster, and the replacement level behind him is Rome Odunze in a FLEX spot.
The part the national columns are glossing over: in Barkley's absence, Will Shipley played more snaps than Bigsby — 39 (51%) to 26 (34%) — because Philadelphia trusts him in pass protection. Bigsby got the touches (15 to 9) and the touchdown; Shipley got the passing downs. This is a genuine committee, not a clean handcuff, and in PPR that caps Bigsby's ceiling meaningfully. He is still the right half of the split to own, because the goal-line and early-down work is where the points are in that offense, but it is a reason to bid $3 and not $8.
Expected competition: very low. Nobody else in the league owns Barkley, so nobody else has a specific reason to want Bigsby. Bijan Mustard might throw $1 at him out of habit, and Justin beats him on the tie. $2 probably wins this. $3 is the insurance premium.
The drop: Caleb Douglas is the clearest cut on the roster. He is the 38%-rostered third receiver in a bad Miami offense, and his Week 1 line (14.4) has looked like the outlier ever since. Justin has eight receivers for two WR slots and two FLEX spots; Douglas is the eighth.
Conviction on the need: certain. Conviction on the urgency: low. Goff is 69.3% rostered nationally · Week 2: 29.8 points · DET bye is Week 6, so he is available in Week 7
Week 7 is four weeks out and Justin currently cannot field a quarterback that week. The cheapest possible fix is to take one now, while a genuinely startable option is sitting free: Jared Goff at 69% national rostership, Bo Nix at 83%, C.J. Stroud, Tyler Shough, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith are all unrostered in this league.
Honest framing: this is a $2 convenience purchase, not a necessity. A 10-team league with one QB slot and no kickers or defenses will never run out of quarterbacks. Bijan Mustard alone has cycled Kyler Murray, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and Tyler Shough through his roster in three weeks. If this claim loses, Justin picks up a comparable quarterback in Week 6 for $0 and nothing is lost.
Expected competition: real, but not for Goff specifically. Team Carvalho has zero healthy quarterbacks, $95, and a demonstrated willingness to bid. They will take the quarterback they rate highest, and Carvalho beats Justin on a tie. Do not chase — if they want Goff at $12, let them have him. There are six more.
The drop: Jayden Reed was carted off against the Jets and re-diagnosed with a back injury, timeline TBD, and is not expected to be cleared for Thursday. He is the sixth-best healthy receiver on a roster that starts two. The honest counter-argument: Reed at 64.6% rostered has more upside than Douglas if the back injury is short, and dropping two receivers in one week to add two bench pieces is aggressive. If only one claim is made, make it Bigsby and keep Reed.
Conviction: medium. 22.2% rostered and climbing · Week 2: 10-39-1 rushing, 3-19 receiving, 14.8 points
Every major outlet has Coleman at or near the top of the Week 3 board, and the logic is clean: Dobbins and RJ Harvey both went down with hamstrings, and Coleman led the backfield with 25 snaps. Three reasons to let him go anyway.
It is a four-man committee, not a vacated role. Coleman 25 snaps, Dobbins 21, Tyler Badie 16. Even as the "lead back," Coleman got 10 carries for 39 yards — the 14.8 was a touchdown, not a workload. Denver's backfield has been unproductive for fantasy all season, and adding a fourth claimant to it does not change that.
Dobbins is expected back Sunday night. The hamstring is reported as not serious. Justin already owns Dobbins. Spending FAAB to own a second piece of a bad committee that Justin is already exposed to is the wrong direction — it doubles down on the weakest asset class on the roster rather than diversifying away from it.
Team Jensen has the specific need and the bid history. They own RJ Harvey, they have $91, they paid $9 for Devaughn Vele, and they beat Justin on a tie. This is the one player this week where the "size up for a specific manager with a demonstrated need" rule applies — and the honest conclusion is that the player is not worth what it would cost to win him. If Justin wants him anyway, the number is $10–12, not $3. I would not spend it.
In this league that is the default, and it has been right almost every week. Everything below is available, none of it has a plausible bidder, and all of it can be added for $0 after the pool clears at about 1:00am MT Wednesday. Bijan Mustard is the one manager who moves fast on Wednesday mornings — he made six free-agent adds between 6:32am and 10:10am last Wednesday — so anything genuinely wanted should be grabbed early, not bid on.
| Player | Pos | Rostered | Why he is free, and whether to care |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | QB | 83.4% | The highest-rostered free agent in the league. Bye Week 10. A fine Week 7 answer if the Goff claim fails. |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 29.0% | 16.5 and 17.0 to open the season. Bye Week 8 — clean for Week 7. |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 49.8% | 23.2 and 22.4, fastest offense in the league, Raiders in Week 3. Nationally the $10 QB; here he has been added and dropped twice already by one manager. |
| Geno Smith / Malik Willis / Kyler Murray | QB | 3.8–49.6% | The depth behind the depth. The QB pool will not run dry. |
| Rachaad White | RB | 65.3% | 14.3 in Week 2 and the highest-rostered free-agent running back. But he is the pass-catching half of a split behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who is rostered by Cee Deez Nuts. Usable PPR FLEX, capped role. Worth $2 if Justin wants a fourth back rather than a handcuff. |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 48.9% | Dropped by His Airdness last week and unclaimed since. That is the league in one line. |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 21.5% | 12-140 on 14 targets with Nico Collins out — the best tight end line of the week. Justin has Kittle and Andrews with complementary byes, so there is no need. Team Stowell (Bowers out, A.J. Brown on IR) should want him and has never bid. |
| Josh Downs | WR | 65.0% | 14.2 in Week 2. A real PPR receiver, and Justin already has eight. |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | 17.0% | 12 targets, 29% target share for the Jets. The best pure-volume receiver on the wire. |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 1.7% | Contingent on DJ Moore's shoulder. Moore is rostered by His Airdness, who does not bid. |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 50.5% | Still free, still unclaimed, three weeks running. |
Emanuel Wilson (RB, Seattle) rushed 21 times for 92 yards in Week 2 and appears on several national boards at $3. Two things make that line misleading: Seattle won 31–7, so the bulk of those carries were game-script garbage time, and Jadarian Price's chest X-rays came back negative — the starter is not going anywhere. Wilson was described as buried on the depth chart a week ago and is 0.6% rostered. This is a one-week spike, not a role change.
Opportunity cost, not "worst player." Justin's roster is full, so the question for each drop is what that bench spot is worth relative to what it could hold.
Generated Thursday, September 24, 2026, about 2:30pm MT · before Thursday Night Football (Falcons at Packers, 6:15pm MT) · lineup, projections and schedule pulled live from the ESPN API · Wednesday and Thursday practice reports
| Slot | Current | ESPN proj | Recommended | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | 23.6 | Josh Allen | LAC @ BUF · BUF −7, total 50.5 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | 20.6 | Jonathan Taylor | HOU @ IND · IND +2.5, total 42.5 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley Q | 17.4 | Saquon Barkley | PHI @ CHI (Mon) · PHI −4.5 |
| WR | Zay Flowers Q | 15.6 | Flowers, or Brian Thomas Jr. if Flowers is ruled out | BAL vs DAL (Rio) · BAL −3.5, total 52.5 |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 9.9 | KC Concepcion (11.0) lean | CAR @ CLE · CLE +2.5, total 42.5 |
| TE | George Kittle | 12.7 | George Kittle | ARI @ SF · SF −8.5, total 47.5 |
| FLEX | Terry McLaurin | 11.9 | Mark Andrews (10.2) | BAL vs DAL · see above |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | 10.9 | Jameson Williams | NYJ @ DET · DET −6.5, total 47.5 |
Bench after the changes: McLaurin, Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr., J.K. Dobbins, Rachaad White, Tank Bigsby. Jordyn Tyson stays on IR.
Conviction: medium. ESPN projects McLaurin 1.7 points higher. I don't agree with that, and here's why.
Washington's offense lost its quarterback. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow on the last play of the first half against Dallas, and Marcus Mariota starts Sunday. Seattle is a 7-point favorite in a 40.5 total, the lowest total of the weekend. That puts Washington's implied total at about 17 points. McLaurin has scored 3.4 and 7.0 this season, and the 7.0 came on 9 targets with the starting quarterback. His target share might hold up with Mariota, but the passing game he is getting targets from got worse.
Andrews is in the best environment on the slate. Ravens–Cowboys has the highest total of the week at 52.5, and Baltimore's implied total is about 28. Andrews has caught 10 of 13 targets this season, including 6 of 7 in the game Flowers missed. Dallas has allowed 17 PPR points a game to tight ends. If Flowers sits again, Andrews is Lamar Jackson's most reliable short-area target. If Flowers plays, Andrews still has a good matchup.
What would change this: nothing likely to come out of Friday's reports. Flowers' status changes how high Andrews can go, but not whether he's the better start over McLaurin.
Status: did not practice Wednesday or Thursday (hamstring, originally hurt in Week 1, missed Week 2). He worked on the side field before Thursday's practice.
Earlier in the week, Jesse Minter said Flowers had a "good shot" to play. Two missed practices make that less likely. The Ravens fly to Rio tonight and practice Friday, and the final injury report comes out after that. It's the report that matters.
Conviction: low. This is close to a coin flip, so take the small edge.
Caleb Williams (hamstring) isn't expected to practice this week and will "likely miss some time." Tyson Bagent is in the concussion protocol, so Case Keenum may start Monday night against Philadelphia's defense. Odunze's role is secure (86% snaps), but he has had 4 targets in each game with Williams at quarterback.
Concepcion is Cleveland's second read behind Denzel Boston, with a 72% route share and 6 targets last week, at home against Carolina. Neither game has much offense. Concepcion's projection is a little higher and his quarterback situation is more stable. Odunze playing Monday night doesn't give Justin any late-swap flexibility that he needs, because Tank Bigsby already covers the Barkley risk.
The Bigsby claim won at $2 (Caleb Douglas dropped). Justin added Rachaad White as a free agent Wednesday morning and dropped Jayden Reed. The Week 7 quarterback hole is still open. Jared Goff went to Team Carvalho for $10, and Tyler Shough and Kyler Murray were both picked up as free agents Wednesday. Bo Nix (bye Week 10) and C.J. Stroud (bye Week 8) are still free and both play in Week 7. The quarterback pool is getting thinner, not larger, so this can't wait past Week 6.
Generated Sunday, September 27, 2026, about 8:00am MT · the Saturday-night check ran late, but no Justin or opponent player had kicked off yet · lineup and kickoff times pulled live from the ESPN API · Friday/Saturday final injury reports
| Slot | Currently set | Recommended | Kickoff (MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | Josh Allen | Sun 11:00 · LAC @ BUF |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | Jonathan Taylor | Sun 11:00 · HOU @ IND |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | Saquon Barkley | Mon 6:15pm · PHI @ CHI |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | Brian Thomas Jr. | Sun 11:00 · NE @ JAX |
| WR | Jameson Williams | Jameson Williams | Sun 11:00 · NYJ @ DET |
| TE | George Kittle | George Kittle | Sun 2:05pm · ARI @ SF |
| FLEX | Zay Flowers Q | J.K. Dobbins (switch back to Flowers only if he's cleared with no limits) | Sun 6:20pm · LAR @ DEN |
| FLEX | Mark Andrews | Mark Andrews | Sun 2:25pm · BAL vs DAL (Rio) |
Conviction: medium-high. This is about timing more than talent.
Flowers didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday, then was limited Friday. That's the same pattern he had last week before sitting out against New Orleans. The Ravens listed him questionable. Both Schefter and Rapoport call it a true pregame decision, and Schefter says Baltimore doesn't expect him to play. If he is active, CBS reports he would likely be on a pitch count. The Maracanã field conditions are another concern for a hamstring.
The problem is the kickoff times. The Rio game starts at 2:25pm MT, so the decision will come out around 12:55pm MT. By then, every 11am game has locked. If Flowers is left in and ruled out at 1pm, the only possible replacements are Dobbins (Sunday night), Rome Odunze, or Tank Bigsby (both Monday). So Dobbins is the replacement either way, and starting him now means an unexpected missed alert doesn't leave a zero.
Why Dobbins is a real start: Jonah Coleman (ankle) is out. Dobbins and RJ Harvey were both full practice participants and are off the report. In Week 1, the last game the backfield had this shape, Dobbins had 8 carries to Harvey's 3. Harvey takes the passing-down work, and Tyler Badie gets some extra snaps, so Dobbins' ceiling is capped. His ESPN projection (10.9) is still about what a limited Flowers would score, without the risk of a zero.
Switch back if: Flowers is active and beat writers report no snap limit. A limited Flowers isn't better than Dobbins.
Conviction: medium-low. McLaurin is still in the WR slot. On Thursday I recommended benching him for Andrews, and Concepcion was the WR lean.
Friday's reports made McLaurin's matchup worse. Seattle hasn't allowed more than 9.1 PPR points to any wide receiver this season or a receiving touchdown. Its zone-heavy coverage pushes short throws to Stefon Diggs and the slot, not to McLaurin on the outside. Washington's implied total is about 17 with Mariota (the one positive: McLaurin and Mariota connected for touchdowns in 3 of 6 games together in 2025). DraftKings and FantasyPros both say sit him.
Thomas is off the injury report, has 11 targets in two games, and plays in a game with an implied total of about 24. Christian Gonzalez makes it a hard matchup, but this format rewards ceiling (a top-5 weekly score is a full standings point), and Thomas' ceiling is the highest of the three. Concepcion is the PPR-floor option (10 of 11 targets caught, about 6 catches for 50 yards expected against a Carolina defense that gives up a lot of catches). He's a fine choice if Justin wants the safer floor, but he has almost no upside, with a 3.9-yard average target depth.
Opponent note: Breaking Burrow has benched Puka Nacua (doubtful) and is starting Tyler Shough at QB over Burrow and Lawrence.